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Atlas vs Monterrey Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura - 3 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 01:05

Atlas

PPG 1.54 · HOME

UPCOMING

Monterrey

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+13.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-14.3%0-22.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.5%1-19.1%1-25.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.0%2-19.7%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.7%3-16.9%3-24.2%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-16.0%4+-23.7%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 37.6% 2.66 +39.9%

Draw 24.2% 29.4% 3.40 -10.6%

Away win 23.1% 39.7% 2.52 -25.1%

Over 2.5 61.2% 54.1% 1.85 +13.2%

Over 3.5 39.0% 32.3% 3.10 +20.9%

BTTS 55.4% 60.6% 1.65 -8.6%

Home O1.5 60.1% 42.6% 2.35 +41.2%

Away O1.5 36.5% 44.4% 2.25 -17.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 53% / xG 2.1-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 3–1 6.9%

#5 1–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlas2.1

Monterrey1.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 39.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLAS · PPG 1.54

MONTERREY · PPG 0.93

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.92 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atlas (H) 52.6%

ODDS 2.66 · IMPLIED 37.6% EV +39.9%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.6%

Monterrey (A) 23.1%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV -25.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlas face Monterrey in Mexico - Liga MX on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlas a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Monterrey 23%, so Atlas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Atlas and 1.2 for Monterrey (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlas are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 0.93 for Monterrey. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +74.3%.

Atlas vs Monterrey Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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