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Puebla vs Guadalajara Chivas Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura - 3 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 01:00

Puebla

PPG 1.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Guadalajara Chivas

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-19.8%0-25.5%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.6%1-112.9%1-27.2%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.6%2-18.5%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.3%3-13.7%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 22.0% 4.55 +107.0%

Draw 26.6% 26.0% 3.85 +1.5%

Away win 27.9% 59.2% 1.69 -31.7%

Over 2.5 50.4% 57.8% 1.73 -12.8%

Over 3.5 28.9% 35.7% 2.80 -11.5%

BTTS 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Home O1.5 38.3% 31.3% 3.20 +22.6%

Away O1.5 36.5% 58.8% 1.70 -38.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 29%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

H 46% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.9%

#3 1–0 11.6%

#4 2–1 8.5%

#5 0–1 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Puebla1.3

Guadalajara Chivas1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PUEBLA · PPG 1.14

GUADALAJARA CHIVAS · PPG 1.50

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.20, combined xG 2.42 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Puebla (H) 45.5%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV +107.0%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +1.5%

Guadalajara Chivas (A) 27.9%

ODDS 1.69 · IMPLIED 59.2% EV -31.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Puebla face Guadalajara Chivas in Mexico - Liga MX on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Puebla a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Guadalajara Chivas 28%, so Puebla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Puebla and 1.1 for Guadalajara Chivas (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Puebla are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.50 for Guadalajara Chivas. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +42.6%.

Puebla vs Guadalajara Chivas Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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