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Atletico San Luis vs Club Tijuana Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura - 3 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 03:00

Atletico San Luis

PPG 0.79 · HOME

UPCOMING

Club Tijuana

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-15.8%0-24.8%0-32.6%0-4+1.6%1 1-06.0%1-19.9%1-28.1%1-34.5%1-4+2.7%2 2-05.1%2-18.4%2-26.9%2-33.8%2-4+2.3%3 3-02.9%3-14.7%3-23.9%3-32.1%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.9%4+-22.4%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.4% 43.5% 2.30 -7.1%

Draw 24.9% 28.6% 3.50 -7.7%

Away win 34.7% 35.0% 2.86 -0.8%

Over 2.5 61.2% 58.8% 1.70 +4.0%

Over 3.5 39.4% 35.7% 2.80 +10.3%

BTTS 62.1% 63.7% 1.57 -2.5%

Home O1.5 49.4% 50.0% 2.00 -1.2%

Away O1.5 48.0% 43.5% 2.30 +10.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 29%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.1%

H 40% / xG 1.7-1.6 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 2–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico San Luis1.7

Club Tijuana1.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO SAN LUIS · PPG 0.79

CLUB TIJUANA · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.04 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atletico San Luis (H) 40.4%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -7.1%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.7%

Club Tijuana (A) 34.7%

ODDS 2.86 · IMPLIED 35.0% EV -0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico San Luis face Club Tijuana in Mexico - Liga MX on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico San Luis a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Club Tijuana 35%, so Atletico San Luis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Atletico San Luis and 1.6 for Club Tijuana (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico San Luis are averaging 0.79 points per game versus 1.14 for Club Tijuana. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +10.4%.

Atletico San Luis vs Club Tijuana Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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