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Toluca U21 vs Necaxa U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Regular Season - 3 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 15:00

Toluca U21

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Necaxa U21

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.24 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-14.5%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.2%1-19.4%1-24.0%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.1%3-16.8%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-15.7%4+-22.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% — — —

Draw 24.1% — — —

Away win 21.2% — — —

Over 2.5 53.3% — — —

Over 3.5 32.2% — — —

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 60.1% — — —

Away O1.5 20.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 100%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 55% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.7%

#2 1–1 9.4%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 11.2%

#5 3–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Toluca U212.1

Necaxa U210.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.3% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TOLUCA U21 · PPG 1.57

NECAXA U21 · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.24 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Toluca U21 (H) 54.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Necaxa U21 (A) 21.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Toluca U21 face Necaxa U21 in Mexico - Liga MX U21 on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Toluca U21 a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Necaxa U21 21%, so Toluca U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Toluca U21 and 0.8 for Necaxa U21 (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Toluca U21 are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.25 for Necaxa U21.

Toluca U21 vs Necaxa U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Match Preview & Prediction

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