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FC Juarez vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura - 3 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 03:00

FC Juarez

PPG 1.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-19.4%0-25.3%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.1%1-112.7%1-27.3%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.6%2-18.6%2-24.9%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.4%3-13.9%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.1% — — —

Draw 30.0% — — —

Away win 28.9% — — —

Over 2.5 48.4% — — —

Over 3.5 28.9% — — —

BTTS 50.8% — — —

Home O1.5 38.3% — — —

Away O1.5 36.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 29%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 18%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob50.8%

H 41% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 8.2%

#3 1–0 11.1%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Juarez1.4

U.N.A.M. - Pumas1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FC JUAREZ · PPG 1.11

U.N.A.M. - PUMAS · PPG 1.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Juarez (H) 41.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (A) 28.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Juarez face U.N.A.M. - Pumas in Mexico - Liga MX on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Juarez a 41% chance, the draw 30% and U.N.A.M. - Pumas 29%, so FC Juarez are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for FC Juarez and 1.1 for U.N.A.M. - Pumas (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Juarez are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 1.88 for U.N.A.M. - Pumas.

FC Juarez vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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