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Club America vs Santos Laguna Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura - 3 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 23:00

Club America

PPG 1.82 · HOME

UPCOMING

Santos Laguna

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-13.7%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.8%1-18.5%1-23.3%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.1%2-19.6%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.1%3-17.2%3-22.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-08.7%4+-16.9%4+-22.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.5% 70.4% 1.42 -15.5%

Draw 22.0% 21.3% 4.70 +2.0%

Away win 18.6% 15.4% 6.50 +12.5%

Over 2.5 53.4% 62.5% 1.60 -14.6%

Over 3.5 33.3% 40.8% 2.45 -18.4%

BTTS 52.6% 57.1% 1.75 -8.0%

Home O1.5 60.1% 69.4% 1.44 -13.5%

Away O1.5 20.3% 25.6% 3.90 -12.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.6%

H 60% / xG 2.3-0.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.1%

#2 1–1 8.5%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 3–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Club America2.3

Santos Laguna0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 33.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CLUB AMERICA · PPG 1.82

SANTOS LAGUNA · PPG 0.56

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.47 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Club America (H) 59.5%

ODDS 1.42 · IMPLIED 70.4% EV -15.5%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV +2.0%

Santos Laguna (A) 18.6%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +12.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Club America face Santos Laguna in Mexico - Liga MX on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Club America a 60% chance, the draw 22% and Santos Laguna 19%, so Club America are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Club America and 0.8 for Santos Laguna (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Club America are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 0.56 for Santos Laguna. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +12.0%.

Club America vs Santos Laguna Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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