Today / Peru - Primera División / FBC Melgar vs Sporting Cristal

FBC Melgar vs Sporting Cristal Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura - 2 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 01:00

FBC Melgar

PPG 2.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sporting Cristal

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a clear edge.

+31.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-12.1%0-21.0%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.3%1-15.9%1-22.8%1-30.9%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.0%2-18.6%2-24.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.7%3-18.2%3-23.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-012.6%4+-112.0%4+-25.7%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.7% 58.8% 1.70 +15.1%

Draw 17.4% 27.0% 3.70 -21.4%

Away win 14.9% 21.3% 4.70 -18.0%

Over 2.5 67.0% 57.8% 1.73 +15.9%

Over 3.5 44.5% 35.7% 2.80 +24.6%

BTTS 59.3% 60.6% 1.65 -2.2%

Home O1.5 77.3% 58.8% 1.70 +31.4%

Away O1.5 27.8% 31.3% 3.20 -6.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 12.8%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob59.3%

H 68% / xG 2.9-0.9 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.0%

#2 3–0 8.7%

#3 2–1 8.6%

#4 3–1 8.2%

#5 1–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FBC Melgar2.9

Sporting Cristal0.9

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FBC MELGAR · PPG 2.11

SPORTING CRISTAL · PPG 0.56

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.93 for Home, form 2.11 vs 0.56 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

FBC Melgar (H) 67.7%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV +15.1%

Draw 17.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -21.4%

Sporting Cristal (A) 14.9%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV -18.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

FBC Melgar face Sporting Cristal in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FBC Melgar a 68% chance, the draw 17% and Sporting Cristal 15%, so FBC Melgar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for FBC Melgar and 0.9 for Sporting Cristal (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FBC Melgar are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 0.56 for Sporting Cristal. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +48.0%.

FBC Melgar vs Sporting Cristal Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions