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Atletico FC vs LDU Portoviejo Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B

Regular Season - 19 ·Thursday, July 30, 2026, 20:30

Atletico FC

PPG 2.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

LDU Portoviejo

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.56 for Home, form 2.25 vs 0.44 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-13.8%0-20.9%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-017.0%1-17.7%1-21.8%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.2%2-17.8%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-011.6%3-15.2%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-09.3%4+-14.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.1% — — —

Draw 22.9% — — —

Away win 9.1% — — —

Over 2.5 50.4% — — —

Over 3.5 28.9% — — —

BTTS 45.4% — — —

Home O1.5 53.6% — — —

Away O1.5 15.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 83%

Score Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob45.4%

H 68% / xG 2.0-0.5 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 17.2%

#2 1–0 17.0%

#3 3–0 11.6%

#4 0–0 8.5%

#5 1–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico FC2.0

LDU Portoviejo0.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO FC · PPG 2.25

LDU PORTOVIEJO · PPG 0.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.56 for Home, form 2.25 vs 0.44 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Atletico FC (H) 68.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

LDU Portoviejo (A) 9.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico FC face LDU Portoviejo in Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B on Thursday, July 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico FC a 68% chance, the draw 23% and LDU Portoviejo 9%, so Atletico FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Atletico FC and 0.5 for LDU Portoviejo (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico FC are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.44 for LDU Portoviejo.

Atletico FC vs LDU Portoviejo Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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