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Angel City W vs Racing Louisville W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Monday, July 27, 2026, 01:00

Angel City W

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Racing Louisville W

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-13.0%0-21.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.9%1-17.4%1-23.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.2%2-19.3%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.3%3-17.7%3-23.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-010.5%4+-18.8%4+-23.6%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.8% 69.0% 1.45 -6.0%

Draw 19.8% 24.4% 4.10 -11.3%

Away win 15.4% 16.7% 6.00 -4.6%

Over 2.5 63.7% 56.5% 1.77 +12.8%

Over 3.5 40.0% 33.9% 2.95 +18.0%

BTTS 52.3% 54.1% 1.85 -3.2%

Home O1.5 63.3% 63.7% 1.57 -0.6%

Away O1.5 20.1% 23.8% 4.20 -9.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -7.1%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 65% / xG 2.5-0.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.2%

#2 3–0 9.3%

#3 2–1 9.3%

#4 1–1 7.4%

#5 1–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Angel City W2.5

Racing Louisville W0.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ANGEL CITY W · PPG 1.50

RACING LOUISVILLE W · PPG 0.00

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.67 for Home, form 1.50 vs 0.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Angel City W (H) 64.8%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -6.0%

Draw 19.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -11.3%

Racing Louisville W (A) 15.4%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -4.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Angel City W face Racing Louisville W in USA - NWSL on Monday, July 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Angel City W a 65% chance, the draw 20% and Racing Louisville W 15%, so Angel City W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Angel City W and 0.8 for Racing Louisville W (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Angel City W are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.00 for Racing Louisville W. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.0%.

Angel City W vs Racing Louisville W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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