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Bay FC W vs NJ/NY Gotham FC W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Thursday, July 30, 2026, 02:00

Bay FC W

PPG 1.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.3%0-115.4%0-29.0%0-33.5%0-4+1.3%1 1-011.4%1-113.2%1-27.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-04.9%2-15.7%2-23.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.4%3-11.6%3-20.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.1% 21.1% 4.75 +57.2%

Draw 30.7% 28.6% 3.50 +7.4%

Away win 36.2% 59.9% 1.67 -39.6%

Over 2.5 44.8% 51.3% 1.95 -12.6%

Over 3.5 24.9% 29.0% 3.45 -8.5%

BTTS 49.0% 54.1% 1.85 -9.3%

Home O1.5 32.6% 26.7% 3.75 +22.3%

Away O1.5 36.5% 55.6% 1.80 -34.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -11.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.0%

D 31% / xG 0.9-1.2 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.3%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 0–1 15.4%

#4 1–0 11.4%

#5 0–2 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bay FC W0.9

NJ/NY Gotham FC W1.2

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 24.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BAY FC W · PPG 1.14

NJ/NY GOTHAM FC W · PPG 1.86

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.31, combined xG 2.02 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bay FC W (H) 33.1%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +57.2%

Draw 30.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +7.4%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W (A) 36.2%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -39.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bay FC W face NJ/NY Gotham FC W in USA - NWSL on Thursday, July 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bay FC W a 33% chance, the draw 31% and NJ/NY Gotham FC W 36%, so NJ/NY Gotham FC W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Bay FC W and 1.2 for NJ/NY Gotham FC W (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bay FC W are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.86 for NJ/NY Gotham FC W. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +22.3%.

Bay FC W vs NJ/NY Gotham FC W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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