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River Plate vs Rosario Central Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura - 3 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 22:15

River Plate

PPG 1.69 · HOME

UPCOMING

Rosario Central

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+18.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-18.0%0-23.4%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.1%1-112.1%1-25.2%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.2%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.4%3-14.6%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 50.0% 2.00 -0.6%

Draw 26.5% 32.8% 3.05 -11.5%

Away win 23.9% 24.4% 4.10 -1.2%

Over 2.5 50.4% 37.0% 2.70 +36.1%

Over 3.5 28.9% 18.2% 5.50 +35.4%

BTTS 52.6% 44.4% 2.25 +18.4%

Home O1.5 45.4% 40.0% 2.50 +13.5%

Away O1.5 21.0% 22.2% 4.50 -3.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -4.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 14.1%

#3 0–0 9.3%

#4 2–0 10.7%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

River Plate1.5

Rosario Central0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

RIVER PLATE · PPG 1.69

ROSARIO CENTRAL · PPG 1.40

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

River Plate (H) 49.7%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -0.6%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -11.5%

Rosario Central (A) 23.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -1.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

River Plate face Rosario Central in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives River Plate a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Rosario Central 24%, so River Plate are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for River Plate and 0.9 for Rosario Central (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, River Plate are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.40 for Rosario Central. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +49.2%.

River Plate vs Rosario Central Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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