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Aldosivi vs Gimnasia L.P. Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura - 3 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 17:30

Aldosivi

PPG 0.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gimnasia L.P.

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.4%0-118.6%0-28.1%0-32.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.3%1-112.5%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-04.8%2-14.2%2-21.8%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.1%3-10.9%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.5% 33.6% 2.98 -3.1%

Draw 32.7% 36.0% 2.78 -9.1%

Away win 34.8% 37.6% 2.66 -7.4%

Over 2.5 33.6% 34.7% 2.88 -3.2%

Over 3.5 14.6% 17.4% 5.75 -9.6%

BTTS 45.4% 45.5% 2.20 -0.1%

Home O1.5 32.6% 28.2% 3.55 +15.7%

Away O1.5 23.5% 31.3% 3.20 -14.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -4.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob45.4%

D 33% / xG 0.7-0.9 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.4%

#2 0–1 18.6%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 1–0 14.3%

#5 0–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aldosivi0.7

Gimnasia L.P.0.9

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.6% · O3.5 PROB 14.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ALDOSIVI · PPG 0.88

GIMNASIA L.P. · PPG 1.45

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.20, combined xG 1.54 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Aldosivi (H) 32.5%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -3.1%

Draw 32.7%

ODDS 2.78 · IMPLIED 36.0% EV -9.1%

Gimnasia L.P. (A) 34.8%

ODDS 2.66 · IMPLIED 37.6% EV -7.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aldosivi face Gimnasia L.P. in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aldosivi a 33% chance, the draw 33% and Gimnasia L.P. 35%, so Gimnasia L.P. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Aldosivi and 0.9 for Gimnasia L.P. (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aldosivi are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 1.45 for Gimnasia L.P.. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +15.7%.

Aldosivi vs Gimnasia L.P. Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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