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Gimnasia M. vs Union Santa Fe Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura - 3 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 18:30

Gimnasia M.

PPG 1.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Union Santa Fe

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+10.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-18.9%0-25.5%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.2%1-112.4%1-27.6%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.1%2-18.7%2-25.3%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.3%3-14.0%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.9%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.7% 33.3% 3.00 +37.1%

Draw 26.2% 33.3% 3.00 -12.8%

Away win 28.1% 40.3% 2.48 -18.2%

Over 2.5 52.7% 41.7% 2.40 +26.5%

Over 3.5 29.9% 21.1% 4.75 +25.2%

BTTS 55.4% 50.0% 2.00 +10.8%

Home O1.5 42.9% 31.3% 3.20 +37.3%

Away O1.5 36.5% 36.4% 2.75 +0.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -4.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.3%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 1–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimnasia M.1.4

Union Santa Fe1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.7% · O3.5 PROB 29.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMNASIA M. · PPG 1.78

UNION SANTA FE · PPG 1.09

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gimnasia M. (H) 45.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +37.1%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -12.8%

Union Santa Fe (A) 28.1%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV -18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimnasia M. face Union Santa Fe in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimnasia M. a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Union Santa Fe 28%, so Gimnasia M. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Gimnasia M. and 1.2 for Union Santa Fe (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimnasia M. are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.09 for Union Santa Fe. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +37.3%.

Gimnasia M. vs Union Santa Fe Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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