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Independiente vs Newells Old Boys Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura - 2 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 00:15

Independiente

PPG 1.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Newells Old Boys

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 43.5% — a clear edge.

+51.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-12.6%0-21.2%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.2%1-16.8%1-23.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.5%2-19.1%2-24.3%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.5%3-18.1%3-23.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-010.7%4+-110.2%4+-24.9%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.0% 59.5% 1.68 +2.5%

Draw 18.9% 29.4% 3.40 -21.4%

Away win 20.1% 18.2% 5.50 +6.3%

Over 2.5 65.8% 43.5% 2.30 +51.3%

Over 3.5 43.4% 23.1% 4.33 +87.9%

BTTS 60.0% 46.5% 2.15 +29.0%

Home O1.5 64.0% 50.0% 2.00 +28.0%

Away O1.5 27.8% 20.0% 5.00 +23.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -9.5%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob60.0%

H 61% / xG 2.7-1.0 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 3–0 8.5%

#4 3–1 8.1%

#5 1–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente2.7

Newells Old Boys1.0

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.4%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE · PPG 1.88

NEWELLS OLD BOYS · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.71 for Home, form 1.88 vs 1.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Independiente (H) 61.0%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV +2.5%

Draw 18.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -21.4%

Newells Old Boys (A) 20.1%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +6.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente face Newells Old Boys in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente a 61% chance, the draw 19% and Newells Old Boys 20%, so Independiente are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Independiente and 1.0 for Newells Old Boys (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.00 for Newells Old Boys. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +87.9%.

Independiente vs Newells Old Boys Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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