Today / Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina / Newells Old Boys vs Boca Juniors

Newells Old Boys vs Boca Juniors Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura - 3 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 20:00

Newells Old Boys

PPG 1.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

Boca Juniors

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-113.5%0-29.9%0-34.8%0-4+2.4%1 1-08.5%1-112.4%1-29.1%1-34.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-03.9%2-15.7%2-24.2%2-32.0%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.2%3-11.7%3-21.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.7% 26.3% 3.80 +5.4%

Draw 27.5% 33.6% 2.98 -10.8%

Away win 43.9% 47.2% 2.12 -6.9%

Over 2.5 50.4% 40.0% 2.50 +26.0%

Over 3.5 28.9% 20.0% 5.00 +26.7%

BTTS 52.6% 48.8% 2.05 +7.8%

Home O1.5 32.6% 26.0% 3.85 +25.5%

Away O1.5 45.9% 40.8% 2.45 +12.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -4.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob52.6%

A 44% / xG 0.9-1.5 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–1 13.5%

#3 0–0 9.3%

#4 0–2 9.9%

#5 1–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Newells Old Boys0.9

Boca Juniors1.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NEWELLS OLD BOYS · PPG 1.11

BOCA JUNIORS · PPG 1.78

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.54 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Newells Old Boys (H) 28.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +5.4%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -10.8%

Boca Juniors (A) 43.9%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Newells Old Boys face Boca Juniors in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Newells Old Boys a 29% chance, the draw 28% and Boca Juniors 44%, so Boca Juniors are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Newells Old Boys and 1.5 for Boca Juniors (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Newells Old Boys are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 1.78 for Boca Juniors. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +33.3%.

Newells Old Boys vs Boca Juniors Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina Predictions