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Estudiantes L.P. vs Defensa Y Justicia Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura - 3 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 21:00

Estudiantes L.P.

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Defensa Y Justicia

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.4% vs bookmaker-implied 59.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-18.2%0-22.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.1%1-111.6%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.8%2-18.2%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.1%3-13.9%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-11.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 59.5% 1.68 -10.3%

Draw 24.9% 30.3% 3.30 -10.7%

Away win 21.7% 17.4% 5.75 +14.9%

Over 2.5 45.7% 40.8% 2.45 +12.0%

Over 3.5 28.4% 21.1% 4.75 +20.9%

BTTS 48.7% 44.4% 2.25 +9.6%

Home O1.5 45.4% 47.6% 2.10 -4.7%

Away O1.5 18.9% 18.2% 5.50 +2.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -4.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.7%

H 53% / xG 1.4-0.6 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.1%

#2 0–0 12.8%

#3 1–1 11.6%

#4 2–0 12.8%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Estudiantes L.P.1.4

Defensa Y Justicia0.6

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ESTUDIANTES L.P. · PPG 1.60

DEFENSA Y JUSTICIA · PPG 1.38

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Estudiantes L.P. (H) 53.4%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -10.3%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.7%

Defensa Y Justicia (A) 21.7%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +14.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Estudiantes L.P. face Defensa Y Justicia in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Estudiantes L.P. a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Defensa Y Justicia 22%, so Estudiantes L.P. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Estudiantes L.P. and 0.6 for Defensa Y Justicia (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Estudiantes L.P. are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.38 for Defensa Y Justicia. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +32.2%.

Estudiantes L.P. vs Defensa Y Justicia Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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