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San Marcos de Arica vs Magallanes Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 21:30

San Marcos de Arica

PPG 1.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Magallanes

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-17.4%0-22.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.2%1-111.5%1-24.1%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-18.9%2-23.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.5%3-14.6%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-12.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 52.4% 1.91 +2.6%

Draw 26.3% 30.3% 3.30 -7.9%

Away win 20.0% 27.8% 3.60 -16.8%

Over 2.5 46.8% 51.3% 1.95 -8.7%

Over 3.5 26.4% 29.0% 3.45 -5.3%

BTTS 48.5% 56.5% 1.77 -14.2%

Home O1.5 46.4% 50.0% 2.00 -7.2%

Away O1.5 20.1% 32.3% 3.10 -22.6%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 54% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.2%

#2 1–1 11.5%

#3 2–0 12.5%

#4 0–0 10.4%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Marcos de Arica1.5

Magallanes0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN MARCOS DE ARICA · PPG 1.71

MAGALLANES · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.84 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

San Marcos de Arica (H) 53.7%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +2.6%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.9%

Magallanes (A) 20.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Marcos de Arica face Magallanes in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Marcos de Arica a 54% chance, the draw 26% and Magallanes 20%, so San Marcos de Arica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for San Marcos de Arica and 0.7 for Magallanes (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Marcos de Arica are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.50 for Magallanes.

San Marcos de Arica vs Magallanes Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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