Mura vs NK Celje Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Slovenia - 1. SNL Regular Season - 31 Mestni stadion Fazanerija· Murska Sobota Sunday, April 19, 2026 13:00

Mura PPG 1.43

0-2 HIT MostLikelyScore

NK Celje PPG 1.93

Away· +33.8% ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Mura face NK Celje in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mura a 7% chance, the draw 13% and NK Celje 80%, so NK Celje are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Mura and 2.8 for NK Celje (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mura are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.93 for NK Celje. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +33.8%. This match finished 0-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 7.2%

Odds: 4.20 EV: -69.8%

Draw 12.7%

Odds: 3.95 EV: -49.8%

Away 80.1%

Odds: 1.67 EV: +33.8%

Model lean: Away

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 69.6% Odds: 1.62 +12.8%

Over 3.5 48.3% Odds: 2.55 +23.2%

BTTS 50.0% Odds: 1.60 -20.0%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-2 ✔

2nd 0-3 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 1-3 ✘

5th 0-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Mura

0.76

NK Celje

2.83

Model SuggestionAway +33.8% ROI TRACKS: Away
Tracked ROI market: Away. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5/Under 67%

BTTS/No 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 85.1%

Bet Hit 91% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.43) vs Away GOOD (1.93)