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Mura vs NK Celje Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Regular Season - 31 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Mura

PPG 1.43 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

NK Celje

PPG 1.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 80.1% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a clear edge.

+33.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-17.8%0-211.1%0-310.5%0-4+14.8%1 1-02.1%1-15.9%1-28.4%1-37.9%1-4+11.2%2 2-00.8%2-12.2%2-23.2%2-33.0%2-4+4.2%3 3-00.2%3-10.6%3-20.8%3-30.8%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 7.2% 23.8% 4.20 -69.8%

Draw 12.7% 25.3% 3.95 -49.8%

Away win 80.1% 59.9% 1.67 +33.8%

Over 2.5 69.6% 61.7% 1.62 +12.8%

Over 3.5 48.3% 39.2% 2.55 +23.2%

BTTS 50.0% 62.5% 1.60 -20.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 30.6%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.8 BTTS prob50.0%

A 80% / xG 0.8-2.8 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2✓ 11.1%

#2 0–3 10.5%

#3 1–2 8.4%

#4 1–3 7.9%

#5 0–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mura0.8

NK Celje2.8

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.6% · O3.5 PROB 48.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MURA · PPG 1.43

NK CELJE · PPG 1.93

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.43) vs Away GOOD (1.93)

Win probability 1X2

Mura (H) 7.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -69.8%

Draw 12.7%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -49.8%

NK Celje (A) 80.1%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV +33.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mura face NK Celje in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mura a 7% chance, the draw 13% and NK Celje 80%, so NK Celje are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Mura and 2.8 for NK Celje (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mura are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.93 for NK Celje. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +33.8%. This match finished 0-2.

Mura vs NK Celje Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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