Today / San-Marino - Campionato / Libertas vs Tre Penne

Libertas vs Tre Penne Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Regular Season - 29 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Libertas

PPG 1.54 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Tre Penne

PPG 2.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.29) vs Home GOOD (1.54)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-18.6%0-212.9%0-312.9%0-4+20.4%1 1-01.6%1-14.7%1-27.1%1-37.1%1-4+11.3%2 2-00.4%2-11.3%2-22.0%2-32.0%2-4+3.1%3 3-00.1%3-10.2%3-20.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 4.1% — — —

Draw 9.9% — — —

Away win 85.9% — — —

Over 2.5 69.0% — — —

Over 3.5 47.6% — — —

BTTS 40.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 4 77%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)3.0 BTTS prob40.3%

A 86% / xG 0.6-3.0 / O2.5 69% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 12.9%

#2 0–2 12.9%

#3 0–4 9.7%

#4 0–1 8.6%

#5 1–3✓ 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Libertas0.6

Tre Penne3.0

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.0% · O3.5 PROB 47.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LIBERTAS · PPG 1.54

TRE PENNE · PPG 2.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.29) vs Home GOOD (1.54)

Win probability 1X2

Libertas (H) 4.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 9.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Tre Penne (A) 85.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Libertas face Tre Penne in San-Marino - Campionato on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Libertas a 4% chance, the draw 10% and Tre Penne 86%, so Tre Penne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Libertas and 3.0 for Tre Penne (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Libertas are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 2.29 for Tre Penne. This match finished 1-3.

Libertas vs Tre Penne Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Match Preview & Prediction

More San-Marino - Campionato Predictions