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La Fiorita vs Cosmos Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Regular Season - 29 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

La Fiorita

PPG 1.93 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Cosmos

PPG 1.54 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.9%0-111.9%0-23.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.5%1-112.4%1-23.9%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.1%2-16.4%2-22.0%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.5%3-12.2%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.5% — — —

Draw 33.4% — — —

Away win 22.1% — — —

Over 2.5 23.4% — — —

Over 3.5 8.8% — — —

BTTS 30.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob30.2%

H 44% / xG 1.0-0.6 / U2.5 23% / NoBTTS 30%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.5%

#2 0–0 18.9%

#3 1–1 12.4%

#4 0–1 11.9%

#5 2–0 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

La Fiorita1.0

Cosmos0.6

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 23.4% · O3.5 PROB 8.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LA FIORITA · PPG 1.93

COSMOS · PPG 1.54

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.93) > Away GOOD (1.54)

Win probability 1X2

La Fiorita (H) 44.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 33.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Cosmos (A) 22.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

La Fiorita face Cosmos in San-Marino - Campionato on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives La Fiorita a 45% chance, the draw 33% and Cosmos 22%, so La Fiorita are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for La Fiorita and 0.6 for Cosmos (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 23% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 30% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, La Fiorita are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.54 for Cosmos. This match finished 3-1.

La Fiorita vs Cosmos Prediction— San-Marino - Campionato

Match Preview & Prediction

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