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Vibonese vs AC Palermo Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Group I - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Vibonese

PPG 1.13 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

AC Palermo

PPG 1.53 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.13) vs Away GOOD (1.53)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-19.0%0-27.0%0-33.7%0-4+2.0%1 1-07.4%1-111.6%1-29.1%1-34.7%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.8%2-17.5%2-25.9%2-33.1%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.1%3-13.2%3-22.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.4%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.5% — — —

Draw 24.7% — — —

Away win 43.7% — — —

Over 2.5 54.4% — — —

Over 3.5 32.1% — — —

BTTS 57.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 17.9%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob57.3%

A 44% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 0–1 9.0%

#4 2–1 7.5%

#5 1–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vibonese1.3

AC Palermo1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.1%

Form & verdict PPG

VIBONESE · PPG 1.13

AC PALERMO · PPG 1.53

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.13) vs Away GOOD (1.53)

Win probability 1X2

Vibonese (H) 31.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

AC Palermo (A) 43.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Vibonese face AC Palermo in Italy - Serie D - Girone I on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vibonese a 32% chance, the draw 25% and AC Palermo 44%, so AC Palermo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Vibonese and 1.6 for AC Palermo (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vibonese are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.53 for AC Palermo. This match finished 2-3.

Vibonese vs AC Palermo Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Match Preview & Prediction

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