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Dobrudzha vs Botev Plovdiv Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Regular Season - 30 ·Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 17:30

Dobrudzha

PPG 1.71 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Botev Plovdiv

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 64.2% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+15.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-16.6%0-25.5%0-33.0%0-4+1.8%1 1-06.2%1-110.3%1-28.6%1-34.8%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.8%2-18.1%2-26.7%2-33.7%2-4+2.3%3 3-02.5%3-14.2%3-23.5%3-32.0%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.4%4+-22.0%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 34.7% 2.88 +4.5%

Draw 23.3% 31.3% 3.20 -25.4%

Away win 40.4% 44.4% 2.25 -9.1%

Over 2.5 62.8% 48.8% 2.05 +28.7%

Over 3.5 40.5% 27.0% 3.70 +49.9%

BTTS 64.2% 55.6% 1.80 +15.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 17%

ROI -100.0%

Bet Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob64.2%

A 40% / xG 1.6-1.7 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dobrudzha1.6

Botev Plovdiv1.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.8% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DOBRUDZHA · PPG 1.71

BOTEV PLOVDIV · PPG 1.29

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.71) > Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Dobrudzha (H) 36.3%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +4.5%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -25.4%

Botev Plovdiv (A) 40.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -9.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dobrudzha face Botev Plovdiv in Bulgaria - First League on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dobrudzha a 36% chance, the draw 23% and Botev Plovdiv 40%, so Botev Plovdiv are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Dobrudzha and 1.7 for Botev Plovdiv (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dobrudzha are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.29 for Botev Plovdiv. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +49.9%. This match finished 0-3.

Dobrudzha vs Botev Plovdiv Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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