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Savoia vs Igea Virtus Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Group I - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Savoia

PPG 2.20 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Igea Virtus

PPG 1.53 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.20) > Away GOOD (1.53)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-16.6%0-22.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.1%1-111.3%1-24.8%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.2%2-19.6%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.4%3-15.5%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-13.4%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.4% — — —

Draw 23.9% — — —

Away win 18.8% — — —

Over 2.5 47.2% — — —

Over 3.5 25.6% — — —

BTTS 47.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 17.9%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.2%

H 57% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 47% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.1%

#2 1–1 11.3%

#3 2–0 11.2%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Savoia1.7

Igea Virtus0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.2% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SAVOIA · PPG 2.20

IGEA VIRTUS · PPG 1.53

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.20) > Away GOOD (1.53)

Win probability 1X2

Savoia (H) 57.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Igea Virtus (A) 18.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Savoia face Igea Virtus in Italy - Serie D - Girone I on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Savoia a 57% chance, the draw 24% and Igea Virtus 19%, so Savoia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Savoia and 0.9 for Igea Virtus (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Savoia are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.53 for Igea Virtus. This match finished 3-0.

Savoia vs Igea Virtus Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Match Preview & Prediction

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