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Sandnes ULF vs Kongsvinger Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 15:00

Sandnes ULF

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kongsvinger

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-16.3%0-24.4%0-32.0%0-4+1.0%1 1-07.7%1-110.7%1-27.5%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.6%2-19.1%2-26.4%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.7%3-15.2%3-23.6%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.2%4+-22.3%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.9% 31.3% 3.20 +56.5%

Draw 23.8% 26.7% 3.75 -6.5%

Away win 27.3% 51.3% 1.95 -28.1%

Over 2.5 63.7% 71.4% 1.40 -10.8%

Over 3.5 40.0% 50.0% 2.00 -20.0%

BTTS 62.5% 73.5% 1.36 -15.0%

Home O1.5 53.5% 48.8% 2.05 +9.7%

Away O1.5 41.9% 63.7% 1.57 -34.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 25%

ROI 5.8%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.5%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–0 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sandnes ULF1.7

Kongsvinger1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SANDNES ULF · PPG 1.86

KONGSVINGER · PPG 1.57

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.31 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sandnes ULF (H) 48.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +56.5%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -6.5%

Kongsvinger (A) 27.3%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -28.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sandnes ULF face Kongsvinger in Norway - 1st Division on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sandnes ULF a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Kongsvinger 27%, so Sandnes ULF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Sandnes ULF and 1.4 for Kongsvinger (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sandnes ULF are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.57 for Kongsvinger. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +45.8%.

Sandnes ULF vs Kongsvinger Prediction— Norway - 1st Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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