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Ragusa vs Sancataldese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Group I - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Ragusa

PPG 1.40 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Sancataldese

PPG 0.53 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs P(Home)=51.7%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.5%0-19.4%0-23.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.6%1-112.1%1-23.9%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.9%2-17.7%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.1%3-13.3%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-11.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.7% — — —

Draw 29.4% — — —

Away win 18.9% — — —

Over 2.5 30.4% — — —

Over 3.5 13.0% — — —

BTTS 34.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 17.9%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob34.5%

H 52% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 30% / NoBTTS 34%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.6%

#2 0–0✓ 14.5%

#3 1–1 12.1%

#4 2–0 11.9%

#5 0–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ragusa1.3

Sancataldese0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 30.4% · O3.5 PROB 13.0%

Form & verdict PPG

RAGUSA · PPG 1.40

SANCATALDESE · PPG 0.53

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs P(Home)=51.7%

Win probability 1X2

Ragusa (H) 51.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sancataldese (A) 18.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ragusa face Sancataldese in Italy - Serie D - Girone I on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ragusa a 52% chance, the draw 29% and Sancataldese 19%, so Ragusa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Ragusa and 0.7 for Sancataldese (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 30% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 35% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ragusa are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.53 for Sancataldese. This match finished 0-0.

Ragusa vs Sancataldese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Match Preview & Prediction

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