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Brann vs Valerenga Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 12:30

Brann

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Valerenga

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.4% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-12.7%0-21.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.9%1-17.1%1-23.7%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.0%2-19.2%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.7%3-18.0%3-24.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-09.4%4+-19.7%4+-25.0%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.8% 57.8% 1.73 +6.9%

Draw 19.6% 23.8% 4.20 -10.6%

Away win 18.6% 25.0% 4.00 -15.4%

Over 2.5 66.4% 70.4% 1.42 -5.7%

Over 3.5 44.5% 47.6% 2.10 -6.6%

BTTS 62.5% 70.4% 1.42 -11.3%

Home O1.5 63.3% 66.7% 1.50 -5.1%

Away O1.5 34.2% 42.0% 2.38 -18.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -14.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob62.5%

H 62% / xG 2.6-1.0 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.2%

#2 2–0 9.0%

#3 1–1 7.1%

#4 3–1 8.0%

#5 3–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brann2.6

Valerenga1.0

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.4% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BRANN · PPG 1.50

VALERENGA · PPG 0.67

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.56 for Home, form 1.50 vs 0.67 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Brann (H) 61.8%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV +6.9%

Draw 19.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -10.6%

Valerenga (A) 18.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -15.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brann face Valerenga in Norway - Eliteserien on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brann a 62% chance, the draw 20% and Valerenga 19%, so Brann are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Brann and 1.0 for Valerenga (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brann are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.67 for Valerenga. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +16.1%.

Brann vs Valerenga Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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