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Valerenga vs Ham-Kam Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Regular Season - 16 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 17:00

Valerenga

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ham-Kam

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-12.7%0-21.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-05.9%1-16.9%1-24.1%1-31.6%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.8%2-19.1%2-25.3%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.8%3-17.9%3-24.6%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-08.3%4+-19.7%4+-25.7%4+-32.2%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.4% 62.5% 1.60 -0.2%

Draw 17.0% 23.8% 4.20 -17.2%

Away win 20.6% 21.1% 4.75 -1.3%

Over 2.5 67.0% 66.7% 1.50 +0.5%

Over 3.5 44.8% 45.5% 2.20 -1.4%

BTTS 62.1% 66.7% 1.50 -6.9%

Home O1.5 64.0% 67.6% 1.48 -5.3%

Away O1.5 36.5% 36.4% 2.75 +0.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 13.4%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.1%

H 62% / xG 2.6-1.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.1%

#2 1–1 6.9%

#3 3–1 7.9%

#4 2–0 7.8%

#5 3–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valerenga2.6

Ham-Kam1.2

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

VALERENGA · PPG 1.86

HAM-KAM · PPG 0.43

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.45 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Valerenga (H) 62.4%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -0.2%

Draw 17.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -17.2%

Ham-Kam (A) 20.6%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Valerenga face Ham-Kam in Norway - Eliteserien on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valerenga a 62% chance, the draw 17% and Ham-Kam 21%, so Valerenga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Valerenga and 1.2 for Ham-Kam (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valerenga are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.43 for Ham-Kam. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +14.7%.

Valerenga vs Ham-Kam Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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