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Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Regular Season - 16 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 19:00

Bodo/Glimt

PPG 2.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Lillestrom

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 62.2% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-15.0%0-21.6%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.4%1-19.5%1-22.9%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.5%2-19.0%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.2%3-15.7%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-14.1%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.2% 80.0% 1.25 -22.3%

Draw 21.0% 16.7% 6.00 +15.6%

Away win 16.8% 9.5% 10.50 +45.8%

Over 2.5 50.4% 75.2% 1.33 -33.0%

Over 3.5 28.9% 55.6% 1.80 -28.8%

BTTS 48.7% 62.5% 1.60 -22.1%

Home O1.5 53.6% 82.0% 1.22 -34.6%

Away O1.5 17.4% 27.8% 3.60 -22.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 13.4%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.7%

H 62% / xG 1.9-0.6 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.5%

#2 1–0 15.4%

#3 1–1 9.5%

#4 0–0 8.1%

#5 3–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bodo/Glimt1.9

Lillestrom0.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BODO/GLIMT · PPG 2.57

LILLESTROM · PPG 1.86

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.27 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Bodo/Glimt (H) 62.2%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -22.3%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +15.6%

Lillestrom (A) 16.8%

ODDS 10.50 · IMPLIED 9.5% EV +45.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bodo/Glimt face Lillestrom in Norway - Eliteserien on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bodo/Glimt a 62% chance, the draw 21% and Lillestrom 17%, so Bodo/Glimt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Bodo/Glimt and 0.6 for Lillestrom (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bodo/Glimt are averaging 2.57 points per game versus 1.86 for Lillestrom. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +4.0%.

Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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