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Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Regular Season - 15 ·Monday, July 27, 2026, 17:00

Rosenborg

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Fredrikstad

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 58.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-15.0%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.7%1-19.9%1-24.2%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.6%2-19.8%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.6%3-16.5%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-15.1%4+-22.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.0% 58.8% 1.70 -3.1%

Draw 22.5% 26.7% 3.75 -9.4%

Away win 20.4% 21.7% 4.60 -3.7%

Over 2.5 58.7% 55.6% 1.80 +5.7%

Over 3.5 35.4% 33.9% 2.95 +4.4%

BTTS 52.7% 58.8% 1.70 -10.4%

Home O1.5 55.7% 57.8% 1.73 -3.6%

Away O1.5 20.1% 30.3% 3.30 -20.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.7%

H 57% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.6%

#2 1–1 9.9%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 3–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rosenborg2.0

Fredrikstad0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.7% · O3.5 PROB 35.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ROSENBORG · PPG 1.57

FREDRIKSTAD · PPG 0.57

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.13 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Rosenborg (H) 57.0%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -3.1%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -9.4%

Fredrikstad (A) 20.4%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -3.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rosenborg face Fredrikstad in Norway - Eliteserien on Monday, July 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rosenborg a 57% chance, the draw 23% and Fredrikstad 20%, so Rosenborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Rosenborg and 0.8 for Fredrikstad (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rosenborg are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.57 for Fredrikstad. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.7%.

Rosenborg vs Fredrikstad Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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