Today / Norway - Eliteserien / Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord

Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 14:00

Fredrikstad

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sandefjord

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-18.1%0-23.9%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.7%1-112.3%1-25.9%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.3%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.8%3-14.7%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.5% 44.4% 2.25 +13.6%

Draw 25.3% 29.4% 3.40 -8.4%

Away win 24.3% 33.3% 3.00 -16.3%

Over 2.5 51.6% 57.8% 1.73 -10.7%

Over 3.5 29.4% 35.7% 2.80 -10.6%

BTTS 52.6% 64.5% 1.55 -18.5%

Home O1.5 45.4% 50.0% 2.00 -9.2%

Away O1.5 28.2% 42.0% 2.38 -19.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 13.4%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 50% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 12.7%

#3 0–0 8.4%

#4 2–0 9.6%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fredrikstad1.5

Sandefjord1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FREDRIKSTAD · PPG 1.67

SANDEFJORD · PPG 0.86

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fredrikstad (H) 50.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +13.6%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -8.4%

Sandefjord (A) 24.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -16.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fredrikstad face Sandefjord in Norway - Eliteserien on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fredrikstad a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Sandefjord 24%, so Fredrikstad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Fredrikstad and 1.0 for Sandefjord (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fredrikstad are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.86 for Sandefjord.

Fredrikstad vs Sandefjord Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - Eliteserien Predictions