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Start vs Viking Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 16:00

Start

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Viking

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-19.0%0-29.9%0-37.3%0-4+6.6%1 1-04.1%1-19.0%1-29.9%1-37.2%1-4+6.6%2 2-02.0%2-14.5%2-24.9%2-33.6%2-4+3.3%3 3-00.7%3-11.5%3-21.6%3-31.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.5% 16.0% 6.25 +16.9%

Draw 22.4% 22.7% 4.40 -0.9%

Away win 57.1% 69.0% 1.45 -17.2%

Over 2.5 61.6% 66.7% 1.50 -7.6%

Over 3.5 39.4% 44.4% 2.25 -11.3%

BTTS 55.4% 62.5% 1.60 -11.4%

Home O1.5 32.6% 30.3% 3.30 +7.6%

Away O1.5 60.3% 70.4% 1.42 -14.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 13.4%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob55.4%

A 57% / xG 1.0-2.2 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 0–2 9.9%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–1 9.0%

#5 0–3 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Start1.0

Viking2.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

START · PPG 1.00

VIKING · PPG 2.00

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.20 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Start (H) 20.5%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +16.9%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -0.9%

Viking (A) 57.1%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Start face Viking in Norway - Eliteserien on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Start a 21% chance, the draw 22% and Viking 57%, so Viking are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Start and 2.2 for Viking (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Start are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Viking. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +7.6%.

Start vs Viking Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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