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Milazzo vs Sambiase Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Group I - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Milazzo

PPG 1.87 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Sambiase

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.7%0-114.4%0-25.3%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.6%1-112.9%1-24.7%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-07.8%2-15.7%2-22.1%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.3%3-11.7%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.1% — — —

Draw 34.8% — — —

Away win 28.0% — — —

Over 2.5 22.3% — — —

Over 3.5 8.2% — — —

BTTS 30.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 17.9%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob30.6%

D 35% / xG 0.9-0.7 / U2.5 22% / NoBTTS 31%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.7%

#2 1–0 17.6%

#3 0–1✓ 14.4%

#4 1–1 12.9%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Milazzo0.9

Sambiase0.7

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 22.3% · O3.5 PROB 8.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MILAZZO · PPG 1.87

SAMBIASE · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.87), Away GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

Milazzo (H) 37.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 34.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sambiase (A) 28.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Milazzo face Sambiase in Italy - Serie D - Girone I on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Milazzo a 37% chance, the draw 35% and Sambiase 28%, so Milazzo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Milazzo and 0.7 for Sambiase (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 22% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 31% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Milazzo are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 1.80 for Sambiase. This match finished 0-1.

Milazzo vs Sambiase Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Match Preview & Prediction

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