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Sleipner vs Karlslund Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand - 15 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 14:00

Sleipner

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Karlslund

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 74.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-14.0%0-21.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.2%1-18.9%1-24.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.2%2-19.8%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.6%3-17.3%3-23.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.0%4+-16.8%4+-23.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% 74.1% 1.35 -24.4%

Draw 22.3% 23.0% 4.35 -1.8%

Away win 21.8% 17.2% 5.80 +15.9%

Over 2.5 63.6% 74.6% 1.34 -14.8%

Over 3.5 40.3% 52.1% 1.92 -22.6%

BTTS 59.6% — — —

Home O1.5 60.1% — — —

Away O1.5 28.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -40.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob59.6%

H 56% / xG 2.2-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.2%

#2 1–1 8.9%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 3–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sleipner2.2

Karlslund1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SLEIPNER · PPG 1.86

KARLSLUND · PPG 0.57

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.25 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sleipner (H) 56.0%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -24.4%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV -1.8%

Karlslund (A) 21.8%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +15.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sleipner face Karlslund in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sleipner a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Karlslund 22%, so Sleipner are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Sleipner and 1.0 for Karlslund (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sleipner are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.57 for Karlslund.

Sleipner vs Karlslund Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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