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Smedby vs Örebro Syrianska Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand - 15 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 11:00

Smedby

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Örebro Syrianska

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-15.5%0-22.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.1%1-110.4%1-24.5%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-19.8%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.2%3-16.2%3-22.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-14.5%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.6% — — —

Draw 22.4% — — —

Away win 21.9% — — —

Over 2.5 58.2% — — —

Over 3.5 35.6% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 53.6% — — —

Away O1.5 21.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -29.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.4%

H 56% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–0 11.4%

#3 1–0 12.1%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Smedby1.9

Örebro Syrianska0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.2% · O3.5 PROB 35.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SMEDBY · PPG 1.86

ÖREBRO SYRIANSKA · PPG 0.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.03 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Smedby (H) 55.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Örebro Syrianska (A) 21.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Smedby face Örebro Syrianska in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Smedby a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Örebro Syrianska 22%, so Smedby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Smedby and 0.9 for Örebro Syrianska (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Smedby are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.43 for Örebro Syrianska.

Smedby vs Örebro Syrianska Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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