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Nacka Iliria vs Haninge Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand - 11 ·Saturday, June 6, 2026, 10:00

Nacka Iliria

PPG 1.20 · HOME

1 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Haninge

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.4% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-14.1%0-23.8%0-32.3%0-4+1.6%1 1-04.5%1-18.1%1-27.4%1-34.5%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.4%2-18.0%2-27.3%2-34.4%2-4+3.0%3 3-02.9%3-15.2%3-24.8%3-32.9%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-14.0%4+-23.7%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 37.0% 2.70 +17.4%

Draw 22.0% 28.2% 3.55 -13.1%

Away win 34.5% 44.4% 2.25 -22.4%

Over 2.5 65.4% 71.4% 1.40 -8.4%

Over 3.5 43.0% 51.3% 1.95 -16.2%

BTTS 63.6% 75.2% 1.33 -15.4%

Home O1.5 55.0% 54.6% 1.83 +0.7%

Away O1.5 44.6% 59.9% 1.67 -25.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-5

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.6%

H 44% / xG 2.0-1.8 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.1%

#2 2–1 8.0%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–2 7.3%

#5 3–1 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nacka Iliria2.0

Haninge1.8

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.4% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NACKA ILIRIA · PPG 1.20

HANINGE · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Nacka Iliria (H) 43.5%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +17.4%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -13.1%

Haninge (A) 34.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -22.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nacka Iliria face Haninge in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Saturday, June 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nacka Iliria a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Haninge 35%, so Nacka Iliria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Nacka Iliria and 1.8 for Haninge (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nacka Iliria are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.20 for Haninge. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +17.4%. This match finished 1-5.

Nacka Iliria vs Haninge Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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