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Nykoping vs Fittja IF Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand - 11 ·Saturday, June 6, 2026, 11:00

Nykoping

PPG 3.00 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Fittja IF

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 74.3% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-11.5%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-05.4%1-14.8%1-22.1%1-30.6%1-4+0.2%2 2-08.6%2-17.6%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.1%3-18.1%3-23.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-016.3%4+-114.5%4+-26.5%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.9% 71.4% 1.40 -10.5%

Draw 18.9% 23.1% 4.33 -10.9%

Away win 17.2% 16.7% 6.00 +1.9%

Over 2.5 65.4% 72.5% 1.38 -9.8%

Over 3.5 43.3% 51.8% 1.93 -16.4%

BTTS 55.4% 69.0% 1.45 -19.7%

Home O1.5 74.3% 75.2% 1.33 -1.2%

Away O1.5 27.9% 35.7% 2.80 -13.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.4%

H 64% / xG 3.2-0.9 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.1%

#2 2–0 8.6%

#3 3–1 8.1%

#4 2–1 7.6%

#5 4–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nykoping3.2

Fittja IF0.9

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.4% · O3.5 PROB 43.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NYKOPING · PPG 3.00

FITTJA IF · PPG 0.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Nykoping (H) 63.9%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -10.5%

Draw 18.9%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -10.9%

Fittja IF (A) 17.2%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nykoping face Fittja IF in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Saturday, June 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nykoping a 64% chance, the draw 19% and Fittja IF 17%, so Nykoping are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Nykoping and 0.9 for Fittja IF (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nykoping are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Fittja IF. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +24.4%. This match finished 0-2.

Nykoping vs Fittja IF Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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