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Orebro S. vs Smedby Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand · Matchday 11 ·Sunday, June 7, 2026, 14:00

Orebro S.

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Smedby

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 66% chance

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-19.8%0-27.6%0-33.9%0-4+2.1%1 1-07.7%1-111.9%1-29.2%1-34.7%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.7%2-17.2%2-25.6%2-32.9%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.9%3-12.9%3-22.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.8% 40.8% 2.45 -16.2%

Draw 26.0% 29.0% 3.45 -6.2%

Away win 44.2% 40.8% 2.45 +8.3%

Over 2.5 53.7% 65.4% 1.53 -17.8%

Over 3.5 31.9% 43.5% 2.30 -26.6%

BTTS 55.4% 70.4% 1.42 -21.3%

Home O1.5 46.9% 52.4% 1.91 -10.4%

Away O1.5 44.6% 52.4% 1.91 -14.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.4%

A 44% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 0–0 6.3%

#4 0–1 9.8%

#5 0–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orebro S.1.2

Smedby1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.9%

Form & verdict PPG

OREBRO S. · PPG 1.75

SMEDBY · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

66%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.75), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Orebro S. (H) 29.8%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -16.2%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -6.2%

Smedby (A) 44.2%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orebro S. face Smedby in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Sunday, June 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orebro S. a 30% chance, the draw 26% and Smedby 44%, so Smedby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Orebro S. and 1.5 for Smedby (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orebro S. are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.75 for Smedby. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Orebro S. vs Smedby Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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