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Farsta vs Rågsved Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Södra Svealand - 15 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 18:00

Farsta

PPG 3.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Rågsved

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 71.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-12.1%0-21.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-05.2%1-16.1%1-23.5%1-31.4%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.4%2-18.6%2-25.0%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-07.0%3-18.1%3-24.7%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-09.9%4+-111.5%4+-26.6%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.3% 54.1% 1.85 +19.0%

Draw 16.7% 26.0% 3.85 -21.4%

Away win 19.0% 30.8% 3.25 -22.9%

Over 2.5 67.6% 73.5% 1.36 -8.1%

Over 3.5 48.3% 51.8% 1.93 -6.8%

BTTS 63.5% 74.1% 1.35 -14.3%

Home O1.5 71.0% 66.7% 1.50 +6.5%

Away O1.5 36.5% 50.0% 2.00 -27.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -29.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 77%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.5%

H 64% / xG 2.8-1.2 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.6%

#2 3–1 8.1%

#3 2–0 7.4%

#4 3–0 7.0%

#5 1–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Farsta2.8

Rågsved1.2

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.6% · O3.5 PROB 48.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FARSTA · PPG 3.00

RÅGSVED · PPG 1.17

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.67 for Home, form 3.00 vs 1.17 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Farsta (H) 64.3%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +19.0%

Draw 16.7%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -21.4%

Rågsved (A) 19.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -22.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Farsta face Rågsved in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Farsta a 64% chance, the draw 17% and Rågsved 19%, so Farsta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Farsta and 1.2 for Rågsved (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Farsta are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.17 for Rågsved. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +43.5%.

Farsta vs Rågsved Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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