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Gelbison vs Acireale Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Group I - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Gelbison

PPG 1.40 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Acireale

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.87)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-14.1%0-21.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.0%1-18.9%1-23.6%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.9%2-19.7%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.6%3-17.0%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-16.3%4+-22.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.4% — — —

Draw 18.8% — — —

Away win 12.8% — — —

Over 2.5 57.4% — — —

Over 3.5 35.0% — — —

BTTS 49.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 17.9%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.4%

H 68% / xG 2.2-0.8 / O2.5 57% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.9%

#2 1–0 11.0%

#3 2–1✓ 9.7%

#4 1–1 8.9%

#5 3–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gelbison2.2

Acireale0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.4% · O3.5 PROB 35.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GELBISON · PPG 1.40

ACIREALE · PPG 0.87

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.87)

Win probability 1X2

Gelbison (H) 68.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 18.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Acireale (A) 12.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Gelbison face Acireale in Italy - Serie D - Girone I on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gelbison a 68% chance, the draw 19% and Acireale 13%, so Gelbison are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Gelbison and 0.8 for Acireale (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gelbison are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.87 for Acireale. This match finished 2-1.

Gelbison vs Acireale Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Match Preview & Prediction

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