Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone I / CastrumFavara vs Gela

CastrumFavara vs Gela Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Group I - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

CastrumFavara

PPG 1.40 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Gela

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-19.2%0-25.0%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.7%1-112.7%1-26.9%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.1%2-18.8%2-24.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.7%3-14.1%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% — — —

Draw 26.9% — — —

Away win 29.4% — — —

Over 2.5 44.7% — — —

Over 3.5 23.5% — — —

BTTS 49.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 17.9%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.5%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 45% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 11.7%

#3 0–1 9.2%

#4 2–1 8.8%

#5 0–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CastrumFavara1.4

Gela1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.7% · O3.5 PROB 23.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CASTRUMFAVARA · PPG 1.40

GELA · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

CastrumFavara (H) 43.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Gela (A) 29.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

CastrumFavara face Gela in Italy - Serie D - Girone I on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CastrumFavara a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Gela 29%, so CastrumFavara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for CastrumFavara and 1.1 for Gela (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CastrumFavara are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.93 for Gela. This match finished 3-1.

CastrumFavara vs Gela Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone I

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie D - Girone I Predictions