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Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 11:35

Shandong Luneng

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Henan Jianye

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-15.0%0-22.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.8%1-110.0%1-25.6%1-32.1%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.9%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.8%3-16.5%3-23.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-15.1%4+-22.9%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.2% 51.5% 1.94 +5.1%

Draw 22.2% 26.0% 3.85 -8.7%

Away win 23.6% 31.3% 3.20 -14.7%

Over 2.5 63.7% 70.4% 1.42 -9.6%

Over 3.5 40.7% 48.8% 2.05 -16.6%

BTTS 62.5% 72.5% 1.38 -13.8%

Home O1.5 55.7% 62.5% 1.60 -10.9%

Away O1.5 36.4% 47.6% 2.10 -23.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.5%

H 54% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 8.7%

#4 1–0 8.8%

#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shandong Luneng2.0

Henan Jianye1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SHANDONG LUNENG · PPG 2.00

HENAN JIANYE · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.85 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Shandong Luneng (H) 54.2%

ODDS 1.94 · IMPLIED 51.5% EV +5.1%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -8.7%

Henan Jianye (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shandong Luneng face Henan Jianye in China - Super League on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shandong Luneng a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Henan Jianye 24%, so Shandong Luneng are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Shandong Luneng and 1.1 for Henan Jianye (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shandong Luneng are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.22 for Henan Jianye.

Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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