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Lørenskog vs Hønefoss Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 12:00

Lørenskog

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hønefoss

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-14.3%0-22.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-07.2%1-19.1%1-25.8%1-32.4%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.6%2-19.6%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.4%3-16.8%3-24.3%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-15.9%4+-23.7%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% — — —

Draw 22.0% — — —

Away win 25.2% — — —

Over 2.5 66.8% — — —

Over 3.5 44.8% — — —

BTTS 63.5% — — —

Home O1.5 60.1% — — —

Away O1.5 36.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.5%

H 53% / xG 2.1-1.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 3–1 6.8%

#5 2–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lørenskog2.1

Hønefoss1.3

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.8% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LØRENSKOG · PPG 2.50

HØNEFOSS · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.85 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Lørenskog (H) 52.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Hønefoss (A) 25.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Lørenskog face Hønefoss in Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lørenskog a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Hønefoss 25%, so Lørenskog are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Lørenskog and 1.3 for Hønefoss (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lørenskog are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.67 for Hønefoss.

Lørenskog vs Hønefoss Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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