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Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 10:30

Gwangju FC

PPG 0.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Jeju United FC

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+17.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-116.7%0-214.8%0-38.7%0-4+5.7%1 1-05.6%1-19.9%1-28.7%1-35.1%1-4+3.4%2 2-01.7%2-12.9%2-22.6%2-31.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-00.3%3-10.6%3-20.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.5% 25.0% 4.00 -25.2%

Draw 25.4% 30.8% 3.25 -10.5%

Away win 60.1% 51.3% 1.95 +17.2%

Over 2.5 50.0% 42.6% 2.35 +17.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 23.1% 4.33 +14.6%

BTTS 48.5% 50.0% 2.00 -3.0%

Home O1.5 33.3% 25.6% 3.90 +29.9%

Away O1.5 49.0% 44.4% 2.25 +10.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -29.6%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob48.5%

A 60% / xG 0.6-1.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 16.7%

#2 0–2 14.8%

#3 1–1 9.9%

#4 0–0 9.5%

#5 1–2 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gwangju FC0.6

Jeju United FC1.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GWANGJU FC · PPG 0.70

JEJU UNITED FC · PPG 1.38

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.18 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Gwangju FC (H) 14.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -25.2%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -10.5%

Jeju United FC (A) 60.1%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gwangju FC face Jeju United FC in South Korea - K League 1 on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gwangju FC a 14% chance, the draw 25% and Jeju United FC 60%, so Jeju United FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Gwangju FC and 1.8 for Jeju United FC (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gwangju FC are averaging 0.70 points per game versus 1.38 for Jeju United FC. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +29.9%.

Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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