Today / South Korea - K League 1 / Incheon United vs Bucheon FC 1995

Incheon United vs Bucheon FC 1995 Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 10:30

Incheon United

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bucheon FC 1995

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-111.0%0-25.2%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.9%1-113.3%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.4%2-18.0%2-23.8%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.4%3-13.2%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.7% 58.8% 1.70 -22.3%

Draw 27.8% 29.4% 3.40 -3.3%

Away win 26.5% 19.0% 5.25 +23.5%

Over 2.5 46.8% 42.0% 2.38 +11.4%

Over 3.5 26.4% 22.2% 4.50 +11.3%

BTTS 48.5% 46.5% 2.15 +4.3%

Home O1.5 36.8% 48.8% 2.05 -24.6%

Away O1.5 28.3% 20.0% 5.00 +24.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -29.6%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.5%

H 46% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 11.5%

#3 1–0 13.9%

#4 0–1 11.0%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Incheon United1.2

Bucheon FC 19951.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

INCHEON UNITED · PPG 1.20

BUCHEON FC 1995 · PPG 1.33

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.26, combined xG 2.16 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Incheon United (H) 45.7%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -22.3%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -3.3%

Bucheon FC 1995 (A) 26.5%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +23.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Incheon United face Bucheon FC 1995 in South Korea - K League 1 on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Incheon United a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Bucheon FC 1995 27%, so Incheon United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Incheon United and 1.0 for Bucheon FC 1995 (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Incheon United are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.33 for Bucheon FC 1995. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +55.8%.

Incheon United vs Bucheon FC 1995 Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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