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FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 10:30

FC Seoul

PPG 1.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ulsan Hyundai FC

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 55.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-15.6%0-22.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.6%1-110.6%1-25.3%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.9%2-19.9%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.2%3-16.2%3-23.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-14.5%4+-22.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.1% 54.1% 1.85 +1.9%

Draw 24.4% 28.2% 3.55 -8.0%

Away win 20.5% 25.0% 4.00 -10.8%

Over 2.5 53.9% 54.6% 1.83 -1.4%

Over 3.5 33.3% 32.3% 3.10 +3.2%

BTTS 54.8% 58.8% 1.70 -6.8%

Home O1.5 55.7% 54.1% 1.85 +3.0%

Away O1.5 30.0% 33.3% 3.00 -10.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -29.6%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.8%

H 55% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Seoul1.9

Ulsan Hyundai FC1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 33.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FC SEOUL · PPG 1.89

ULSAN HYUNDAI FC · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.88 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Seoul (H) 55.1%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +1.9%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -8.0%

Ulsan Hyundai FC (A) 20.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Seoul face Ulsan Hyundai FC in South Korea - K League 1 on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Seoul a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Ulsan Hyundai FC 21%, so FC Seoul are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for FC Seoul and 1.0 for Ulsan Hyundai FC (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Seoul are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.67 for Ulsan Hyundai FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +9.2%.

FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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