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Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 10:30

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

PPG 0.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Daejeon Citizen

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 55.7% vs bookmaker-implied 43.5% — a clear edge.

+28.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-113.1%0-211.3%0-36.5%0-4+4.1%1 1-06.5%1-111.2%1-29.6%1-35.5%1-4+3.5%2 2-02.8%2-14.8%2-24.1%2-32.4%2-4+1.5%3 3-00.8%3-11.4%3-21.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.0% 33.9% 2.95 -24.6%

Draw 24.3% 29.4% 3.40 -10.4%

Away win 55.7% 43.5% 2.30 +28.1%

Over 2.5 50.3% 51.3% 1.95 -1.9%

Over 3.5 28.9% 29.0% 3.45 -0.2%

BTTS 52.3% 57.8% 1.73 -9.5%

Home O1.5 33.3% 37.7% 2.65 -11.8%

Away O1.5 49.0% 44.4% 2.25 +10.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -29.6%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob52.3%

A 56% / xG 0.9-1.7 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 0–1 13.1%

#3 0–2 11.3%

#4 1–2 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimcheon Sangmu FC0.9

Daejeon Citizen1.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMCHEON SANGMU FC · PPG 0.67

DAEJEON CITIZEN · PPG 1.67

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.87 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Gimcheon Sangmu FC (H) 20.0%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -24.6%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.4%

Daejeon Citizen (A) 55.7%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +28.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimcheon Sangmu FC face Daejeon Citizen in South Korea - K League 1 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 20% chance, the draw 24% and Daejeon Citizen 56%, so Daejeon Citizen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.7 for Daejeon Citizen (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.67 for Daejeon Citizen. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +10.3%.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Daejeon Citizen Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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