Today / USA - USL Championship / Miami FC vs Detroit City

Miami FC vs Detroit City Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 23:00

Miami FC

PPG 1.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Detroit City

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+10.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-19.2%0-26.7%0-33.3%0-4+1.7%1 1-08.1%1-112.0%1-28.8%1-34.3%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.3%2-17.8%2-25.7%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.3%3-13.4%3-22.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.2% 27.4% 3.65 +32.1%

Draw 24.4% 29.0% 3.45 -9.5%

Away win 39.4% 54.1% 1.85 -27.1%

Over 2.5 61.2% 55.6% 1.80 +10.2%

Over 3.5 37.3% 33.3% 3.00 +11.9%

BTTS 60.0% 59.9% 1.67 +0.2%

Home O1.5 38.3% 34.5% 2.90 +11.1%

Away O1.5 46.6% 54.1% 1.85 -13.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob60.0%

A 39% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 0–0 6.2%

#4 2–1 7.8%

#5 0–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Miami FC1.3

Detroit City1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MIAMI FC · PPG 1.56

DETROIT CITY · PPG 1.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Miami FC (H) 36.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +32.1%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -9.5%

Detroit City (A) 39.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -27.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Miami FC face Detroit City in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Miami FC a 36% chance, the draw 24% and Detroit City 39%, so Detroit City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Miami FC and 1.5 for Detroit City (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Miami FC are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.00 for Detroit City. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +34.7%.

Miami FC vs Detroit City Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - USL Championship Predictions