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Portland Timbers vs Seattle Sounders Prediction— USA - MLS

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 02:45

Portland Timbers

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Seattle Sounders

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-16.5%0-23.5%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.6%1-111.3%1-26.0%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.7%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.3%3-15.6%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.6%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.2% 47.2% 2.12 +8.5%

Draw 24.8% 25.6% 3.90 -2.0%

Away win 24.0% 34.2% 2.92 -17.9%

Over 2.5 53.4% 67.6% 1.48 -21.0%

Over 3.5 32.2% 45.5% 2.20 -29.2%

BTTS 55.4% 70.4% 1.42 -21.3%

Home O1.5 49.4% 57.8% 1.73 -14.5%

Away O1.5 36.4% 48.8% 2.05 -25.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -34.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 9.1%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portland Timbers1.7

Seattle Sounders1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTLAND TIMBERS · PPG 1.75

SEATTLE SOUNDERS · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Portland Timbers (H) 51.2%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV +8.5%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -2.0%

Seattle Sounders (A) 24.0%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV -17.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Portland Timbers face Seattle Sounders in USA - MLS on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portland Timbers a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Seattle Sounders 24%, so Portland Timbers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Portland Timbers and 1.1 for Seattle Sounders (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portland Timbers are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.22 for Seattle Sounders.

Portland Timbers vs Seattle Sounders Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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