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Los Angeles Galaxy vs FC Dallas Prediction— USA - MLS

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 02:30

Los Angeles Galaxy

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

FC Dallas

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-18.2%0-26.0%0-33.0%0-4+1.5%1 1-07.8%1-111.6%1-28.6%1-34.2%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.6%2-18.2%2-26.1%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.6%3-13.9%3-22.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.6% 47.2% 2.12 -22.4%

Draw 24.6% 26.3% 3.80 -3.9%

Away win 38.8% 33.3% 3.00 +16.4%

Over 2.5 61.2% 66.7% 1.50 -8.2%

Over 3.5 35.9% 44.4% 2.25 -19.2%

BTTS 60.0% 70.4% 1.42 -14.8%

Home O1.5 45.4% 57.1% 1.75 -20.5%

Away O1.5 46.9% 47.6% 2.10 -1.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -34.4%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob60.0%

A 39% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 0–0 5.5%

#5 0–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Los Angeles Galaxy1.4

FC Dallas1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 35.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LOS ANGELES GALAXY · PPG 1.00

FC DALLAS · PPG 1.62

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.06 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Los Angeles Galaxy (H) 36.6%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -22.4%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -3.9%

FC Dallas (A) 38.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +16.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Los Angeles Galaxy face FC Dallas in USA - MLS on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Los Angeles Galaxy a 37% chance, the draw 25% and FC Dallas 39%, so FC Dallas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Los Angeles Galaxy and 1.5 for FC Dallas (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Los Angeles Galaxy are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.62 for FC Dallas.

Los Angeles Galaxy vs FC Dallas Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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