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Tacoma Defiance vs Vancouver Whitecaps II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 02:00

Tacoma Defiance

PPG 1.55 · HOME

UPCOMING

Vancouver Whitecaps II

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-14.9%0-22.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.9%1-19.8%1-24.4%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.0%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.4%3-16.6%3-23.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-15.3%4+-22.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.8% 54.1% 1.85 +3.2%

Draw 22.5% 29.4% 3.40 -14.1%

Away win 21.7% 29.4% 3.40 -15.7%

Over 2.5 53.4% 69.4% 1.44 -23.1%

Over 3.5 32.2% 49.0% 2.04 -34.3%

BTTS 52.6% 71.4% 1.40 -26.4%

Home O1.5 53.6% 64.5% 1.55 -16.9%

Away O1.5 24.4% 45.0% 2.22 -27.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 26%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 56% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–0 11.0%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 3–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tacoma Defiance2.0

Vancouver Whitecaps II0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TACOMA DEFIANCE · PPG 1.55

VANCOUVER WHITECAPS II · PPG 0.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.11 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tacoma Defiance (H) 55.8%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +3.2%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -14.1%

Vancouver Whitecaps II (A) 21.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -15.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tacoma Defiance face Vancouver Whitecaps II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tacoma Defiance a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Vancouver Whitecaps II 22%, so Tacoma Defiance are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Tacoma Defiance and 0.9 for Vancouver Whitecaps II (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tacoma Defiance are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 0.20 for Vancouver Whitecaps II.

Tacoma Defiance vs Vancouver Whitecaps II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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